Does Gordon stand a chance?

JeffGordon.com

It all seems so unimportant after the events of this past weekend, but I noticed a poll on NASCAR.com today that had some interesting results. 45% of those participating in the online poll believe Gordon's chances of catching Kurt Busch for the Chase Championship are "Strong". 29% say the chances are "Fair".

I'm afraid I had to join the 17% who think his chances are "Slim". It isn't that I want to make that choice or that I don't hope I am wrong. It is just that looking at the numbers, it doesn't seem very likely. Ironically, at this point in the season, Gordon needs to make up 24 points per race to beat Busch.

It is actually possible for Busch to have top 10 finishes and Gordon still win. If Busch averages fifth place for every race, Gordon will need to win every remaining race. If Busch gets varying finishes between 10th and 5th place with one "mulligan" finish of 15th or farther back, then Gordon could get by with one win and some solid top five and top ten finishes.

Possible? Certainly. Plausible? A qualified yes. Probable? Slim.

I took a look at the average finishes for the remaining races. If each driver - Gordon, Busch and Earnhardt - finish with their averages for those races the final championship standings would be:

1. Kurt Busch - 6562
2. Jeff Gordon - 6490 (72 points back)
3. Dale Earnhardt Jr. - 6460 (102 points back)

Here's hopin' Gordon pulls it off - but he will need some help from Busch.