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Monday, September 27, 2004

NASCAR What If vs. The Chase

NASCAR.com - Races - Standings

This is our second week of comparing the "What If Standings" and the "Chase Standings." This week I have added the actual points for each driver. Jeff Gordon has moved up to take the point making the what if leader the same as the current Chase leader. After the leader, all other positions shuffle. Kasey Kahne drops below the lowest ranked Chase driver. Therefore he drops from the poll.

Tony Stewart is hurt the most by the new points system. Mark Martin gets the biggest boost. In the Chase, 157 points separate the leader from 10th place. Racing the way we did in 2003 would mean 478 points between first and last place. The only what if drivers within 157 points are Jeff Gordon, Dale Earnhardt Jr., and Jimmie Johnson.

I think that when all is said and done, those three drivers will be the top three of both polls - though not necessarily in the current order. Hey, here is a what if for you: if Earnhardt Jr. finishes 1st at Talladega (getting 5 pts. for leading a lap and 5 pts. for leading the most laps) and Gordon comes in 2nd (getting 5 pts. for leading a lap), then Gordon will still maintain a 3 point lead over Junior. Of course, if the race finishes like the April Talladega race, Gordon will increase his lead over Junior to 23 points and over Busch to 126 points.

RankChase StandingsPointsWhat If StandingsPoints
1Jeff Gordon5371Jeff Gordon3923
2Kurt Busch5370Dale Earnhardt Jr.3854
3Dale Earnhardt Jr.5353Jimmie Johnson3811
4Jimmie Johnson5314Kurt Busch3659
5Mark Martin5314Tony Stewart3611
6Elliot Sadler5275Matt Kenseth3579
7Matt Kenseth5272Elliott Sadler3566
8Ryan Newman5264Mark Martin3512
9Tony Stewart5236*Jamie McMurray3473
10Jeremy Mayfield5214Ryan Newman3445
11Jeremy Mayfield3397
*Not in the Chase for the Nextel Cup

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