NASCAR "What If" Standings

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Pretty interesting race yesterday. I didn't get to see the last hundred or so laps. The late start because of Phoenix had the race ending shortly before Pastor Chuck finished preaching last night (a good sermon - as usual - by the way).

It is getting real close. Gordon bested his needed 24 point gain by about 6 points. Earnhardt made a huge gain above his needed 33 points. Mark Martin is hurtin' - not impossible, but not very probable. So I would say it is down to a four man race at this point. Nothing really drastic has to happen. Forty points can be made up over two races without any DNFs among the leaders.

Looking ahead at average finishes for the last two races, Johnson would be the winner of the Chase by 2 points over Kurt Busch. Gordon would follow in third (34 points back) and Earnhardt would be fourth (72 points back). Of course, one thing we have learned is that you can't count on the average finish predictions (though Johnson nailed his average Phoenix finish exactly - 150 points).

Over the next two races, Gordon needs to pick up 20.5 points per race, Earnhardt 23.5 and Johnson 24. It doesn't get much closer than that! Of course, Busch just needs to keep 20 points ahead each race and he takes the prize. But think about it, 20 points is basically the difference between first and third or fourth place (depending on bonus points earned).

I would prefer that we still be under the old system - Gordon is hanging in there with the lead. I have to admit that the Chase has made it very exciting here near the end. You can see the "What If" standings below. Notice how that it is close to the actual standings when you look at the top four drivers. However, it gets more interesting the farther down you go. There are at least two non-Chase drivers who could be in the top ten according to the old system.

Rank	Driver	Points	Behind
1	Jeff Gordon	4702	Leader
2	Dale Earnhardt Jr.	4645	57
3	Jimmie Johnson	4640	62
4	Kurt Busch	4480	222
5	Tony Stewart	4424	278
6	Mark Martin	4287	415
7	Jamie McMurray	4286	416
8	Ryan Newman	4222	480
9	Matt Kenseth	4162	540
10	Elliott Sadler	4160	542
11	Dale Jarrett	4071	631
12	Kasey Kahne	4070	632
13	Kevin Harvick	4027	675
14	Jeremy Mayfield	4019	683